SPY

 Out of all SPY trades from April.

Bought SPY again today

 Into SPY with another 1/3 @ 510

Buying SPY 542

 Not long term. Looking for reversal of the tariff narrative. 

Fib overlay on SPY

 

S&P 500 levels (SPY) - The Stock Market Has a Memory

Interesting to note that 425 is pivotal on both timeframes. 425 is a 25% pullback from all time highs, in my view, not out of the realm of possibilities. Plan is to ladder back into equities at 475, 450 and 425 (incidentally 425 coinciding with the 200 DMA). Even after scaling back in, we will continue to hold 1/3 of net worth in low duration bonds and cash equivalents in the event that we get a 2008-2009 style crisis. What does THAT look like? A 50%+ decline! That level would be 281 and the summer of 2019... only 5 YEARS AGO. That would be extreme but it's not insane enough to plan accordingly.

Also, a little price history perspective. Pre-COVID exuberant high was 339, COVID low was 218, if you split the difference between those two, you arrive at 280. 

The stock market has a memory.

VXX ($17.95)

 Taking entry level position here at 17.94 (1/3 of full position)

TLT working nicely. (2/3 of full position and holding)

CPI tame for October 2023

Inflation was flat in October from the previous month, providing a hopeful sign that stubbornly high prices are easing their grip on the U.S. economy.

The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of commonly used goods and services, increased 3.2% from a year ago despite being unchanged for the month, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Labor Department on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.1% and 3.3%.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% and 4%, against the forecast of 0.3% and 4.1%.

S&P500: 4,477

10 yr treasury: 4.496%

20 yr treasury: 4.858%