Thursday, January 24, 2008

Tourniquet

The street was pretty much spared of any bloodshed & considering yesterday's monster volume (6.9 billion shares) there seems to be some conviction behind this oversold bounce. Afterall the markets overcame a near 3% drop to finish up over 2% on the day, its largest single-day reversal in more than five years. So, now what?
Probably be looking at a tradeable rally back up to the following levels:
  • DOW 12,700s
  • NAZ 2,400
  • S&P 1370/80

It's likely that we've not found a bottom in this market since there wasn't a sense of capitulation and suffering. There was waaaay too much speculative trading going on and too many winners/penny stocks up over 30/40% in the last couple of days.

Conversely, it's worth mentioning that the financials have acted pretty well, something to watch very closely.

"What you watch here is rallies in bear markets are short, sharp and die in low volume," Art Cashin of UBS said on CNBC after the market closed. "You got very healthy volume today. When the volume starts to dry up, get worried."

"I'm going to look towards tomorrow and Friday also," Peter Costa of Eckhart said. "Because what we want to see is follow-through with volume ... If tomorrow's volume is similiar to today with this kind of move, now we've reached a base and we can start to move upwards."

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