Wednesday, June 18, 2008

GDP and "recessions"

I was in a discussion today about the most recent US recession by which I replied 2000-2002. It turns out to be technically incorrect since the US did not see a fall in real gross domestic product in two or more successive quarters; three quarters, yes, but not successively.

Technically speaking, then, the last recession we've had was 1990-91, but it would be unjust to quantify it as such without recognizing 2000-2002. After all, the aforementioned had the required two quarters of severe and short-lived troughs as opposed to the latter's three quarters of negative growth and a significant economic slowdown due to the market's selloff and ensuing wealth effect. Albeit, '00-'02 did not present a grinding halt to the economy it was certainly more painful than '90-'91.

A rose by any other name.

No comments: