- DOW 11750, 12100
- S&P 1290ish, then 1325
- NAZ 2350, 2450ish
Of the three, NAZ looks the best.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Today's Action
Had to protect profits and bail on Broadcom at $24.44
Into JNJ with a spec stake, $69.27
Ford (F 5.11) got its teeth kicked in today.
Financials took a deserved breather and Healthcare was up for most of the day, in fact it appears as though the healthcare sector, judging by the Health Care SPDR (XLV 31.68), is coming up to levels not seen since the first week of June and prior to that it was March.
Cramer pounding the table tonight on Disney (DIS 31.02)
Up in the face of adversity:
AmerisourceBergen (ABC 43.15) is breaking out, Quadruple Top Breakout today. It would be attractive if it settles down to around $42.40ish, where the 200 dma and the 50 dma reside. Even better if it slacks to $40, filling the gap created by today's action.
Covance Inc. (CVD 88.50) is interesting. Renaissance Technologies holds 2%.
Invitrogen (IVGN 42.89) too. Renaissance owns 1.8%.
Into JNJ with a spec stake, $69.27
Ford (F 5.11) got its teeth kicked in today.
Financials took a deserved breather and Healthcare was up for most of the day, in fact it appears as though the healthcare sector, judging by the Health Care SPDR (XLV 31.68), is coming up to levels not seen since the first week of June and prior to that it was March.
Cramer pounding the table tonight on Disney (DIS 31.02)
Up in the face of adversity:
AmerisourceBergen (ABC 43.15) is breaking out, Quadruple Top Breakout today. It would be attractive if it settles down to around $42.40ish, where the 200 dma and the 50 dma reside. Even better if it slacks to $40, filling the gap created by today's action.
Covance Inc. (CVD 88.50) is interesting. Renaissance Technologies holds 2%.
Invitrogen (IVGN 42.89) too. Renaissance owns 1.8%.
AutoNation (AN 9.39)
AutoNation reported results this morning followed by a vibrant Mike Jackson on CNBC. It looks like the stock will open higher today and likely attract some more attention. Definitely try to pick a shot today for another 25% stake.
Likewise, news from Ford (F 6.03) sends another message that perhaps the automobile industry has hit the bottom. General Motors (GM 14.62) is up over 50% from its low.
Likewise, news from Ford (F 6.03) sends another message that perhaps the automobile industry has hit the bottom. General Motors (GM 14.62) is up over 50% from its low.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Chesapeake (CHK) and AutoNation (AN)
Checked out of CHK, $49.52. No current position.
AutoNation pulled back to 9.25 so dipped a toe, spec stake at $9.45. Could ride it to $12 or sell if it falls below $9.
AutoNation pulled back to 9.25 so dipped a toe, spec stake at $9.45. Could ride it to $12 or sell if it falls below $9.
AutoNation (AN 10.27)
AutoNation is hot today and never stood still at 9; took off out of the gates. The blame lies on news of Gates' stake but that news was released at 4:30 on Monday so why didn't we see this type of action yesterday? It's likely a pump so it's not necessary to pile in now. Let it settle, there's time.
Buying at the abolute low would smack of hypocrisy.
Buying at the abolute low would smack of hypocrisy.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Take-Two (TTWO 24.84)
In reviewing yesterday's comments I'd like to know why Cohen has taken a position in this stock at $26 when EA is trying to take it over near $26. What's the upside? What's he know?
Broadcom misses, Gates hits
AutoNation (AN 9.17) Gates owns 5.5%. Starting to get an itchy trigger finger. Heavy volume today and traded propitiously above $9. Watch for it to fall back to rest on 9 then start to trade higher on heavy volume. No action if it falls back below 9.
Broadcom's (BRCM 27.64) profit quadruples but, like Sandisk (SNDK 13.62) today, the shares are tumbling. Support at 25.75 and current position would be in jeopardy if 25 falls.
Semiconductors performed exceptionally well coming out of the 1990-91 recession so perhaps they'll get shellacked so to produce a bonafide buying opportunity. That opportunity will come only after real pain, blood in the streets, the capitulation that we're waiting for. Then, when everyone is afraid, selling, panicking and jumping from windows it will be time to dot the blotter with buys.
I don't know if that level of pain is in the cards but I'm willing to wait and see.
Chesapeake (CHK 50.98) sell remaining stake if it breaks $50.
General Mills (GIS 64.91) looked good today on heavy volume.
The S&P opened lower and traded around 1260 for most of the day until a post 3:00 rally to close at 1277.
Broadcom's (BRCM 27.64) profit quadruples but, like Sandisk (SNDK 13.62) today, the shares are tumbling. Support at 25.75 and current position would be in jeopardy if 25 falls.
Semiconductors performed exceptionally well coming out of the 1990-91 recession so perhaps they'll get shellacked so to produce a bonafide buying opportunity. That opportunity will come only after real pain, blood in the streets, the capitulation that we're waiting for. Then, when everyone is afraid, selling, panicking and jumping from windows it will be time to dot the blotter with buys.
I don't know if that level of pain is in the cards but I'm willing to wait and see.
Chesapeake (CHK 50.98) sell remaining stake if it breaks $50.
General Mills (GIS 64.91) looked good today on heavy volume.
The S&P opened lower and traded around 1260 for most of the day until a post 3:00 rally to close at 1277.
Monday, July 21, 2008
The S&P, then and now
Fibonacci laying over the March 2003 to October 2007 rally reveals interesting levels:
38% ~1285
50% ~ 1197
1285 had come into play throughout 2006 and more recently in March of this year before the index made an assault on 1200 July 15th. My 1275 makes even more sense now.
Check on the performance of Biotech during the 1990-91 recession. My hunch is you'll want to be in financials and biotech during the recovery. When to go long, therein lies the rub.
No witty title
Financials, via the S&P 500 Financial Sector Index (SPSY 278.26) are up nearly 20% since July 15, 2008. Financials will be demonstrating strength long before it's obvious that the trouble is over.
TTWO, $24.66: Stevie Cohen took a position in Take-Two. SAC Capital paid approximately $107,576,865 of investment capital to purchase the 4,099,540 shares of Take-Two (about $26.24 per share).
UST, $52.28: Can let it fall to $51 before cutting loose. It breaks 51, all out.
JNJ, $67.11: Watch for the cup and handle. A move through 68.81 on good volume would be a go. Triple Top Breakout indicated on 7/16/08.
Markets are likely to open weak tomorrow, particularly technology, due to Apple's earnings adjustment (AAPL 166.49).
TTWO, $24.66: Stevie Cohen took a position in Take-Two. SAC Capital paid approximately $107,576,865 of investment capital to purchase the 4,099,540 shares of Take-Two (about $26.24 per share).
UST, $52.28: Can let it fall to $51 before cutting loose. It breaks 51, all out.
JNJ, $67.11: Watch for the cup and handle. A move through 68.81 on good volume would be a go. Triple Top Breakout indicated on 7/16/08.
Markets are likely to open weak tomorrow, particularly technology, due to Apple's earnings adjustment (AAPL 166.49).
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
General Motors (GM 11.17)
My research upon the automotive industry got into high gear just yesterday with the headlines of GM's restructuring. The stock is up 14% today. It's a Low Pole Reversal signalled just today. The stock will likely settle and allow time to accumulate a low position if warranted. My question before yesterday was, "how much more can they (US auto manufacturers) take?"
AutoNation
AN ($7.57) In addition to his 40% stake in AutoNation Lampert owns roughly 36% of Autozone (AZO ). AZO is in the midst of a major stock repurchase program. From whom does Sears or Autonation buy their parts for auto repairs?
South Florida Business Journal article
Florida Trend article
Another article on CEO Mike Jackson suggesting his no-holds-barred attitude.
Todd Sullivan's Value Plays takes a position in AN.
University of Michigan: "The Economy, Competition, and the Retail Automotive Dealer" 2001
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Urban Outfitters (URBN 28.82)
I love the management and love the company's business policies but the price action alarms me. It's time to lock in the 20% gains from 11/2/07 purchase and wait for another entry point. Sold at $28.16
Broadcom (BRCM 28.94) watch for a break above 29.72
JNJ, $67.70, looking good, watch 67.84. Good run from March 2001 to March 2002.
Broadcom (BRCM 28.94) watch for a break above 29.72
JNJ, $67.70, looking good, watch 67.84. Good run from March 2001 to March 2002.
General Mills (GIS 64.11)
Entered GIS with spec stake at $64.15
Ascending Triple Top Breakout with a PO of 82.
Ascending Triple Top Breakout with a PO of 82.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Current Portfolio Stats
9 Securities
Performance:
QTD: -0.33% vs S&P (-3.08%), DOW (-2.20%), NAZ (-2.35%)
YTD: -1.28% vs S&P (-14.63%), DOW (-16.32), NAZ (-15.58%)
Returns vs S&P 500:
Last Week: 2.06%
Last Month: 6.02%
Last 3 Months: 9.08%
Last 6 Months: 11.26%
Annualized: 24.15%
Allocation:
Cash & Treasuries: 55.94%
Consumer Staples: 29.86%
Energy: 7.87%
IT: 3.31%
Consumer Discretionary: 3.02%
Alpha/Beta vs S&P 500:
Alpha: 8.73%
Beta: 0.32
R-Squared: 0.48
Turnover:
Last Month: 10.55%
Last 3 Months: 12.51%
Last 6 Months: 37.32%
Performance:
QTD: -0.33% vs S&P (-3.08%), DOW (-2.20%), NAZ (-2.35%)
YTD: -1.28% vs S&P (-14.63%), DOW (-16.32), NAZ (-15.58%)
Returns vs S&P 500:
Last Week: 2.06%
Last Month: 6.02%
Last 3 Months: 9.08%
Last 6 Months: 11.26%
Annualized: 24.15%
Allocation:
Cash & Treasuries: 55.94%
Consumer Staples: 29.86%
Energy: 7.87%
IT: 3.31%
Consumer Discretionary: 3.02%
Alpha/Beta vs S&P 500:
Alpha: 8.73%
Beta: 0.32
R-Squared: 0.48
Turnover:
Last Month: 10.55%
Last 3 Months: 12.51%
Last 6 Months: 37.32%
Budweiser, an American Institution
The deal for BUD is pretty much done and so are we. It won't trade to $70 yet so we'll take somewhere north of $68.50, sell, free up the cash and move on.
Friday, July 11, 2008
BUD (65.78) at $70?
Budweiser gets closer to a friendly deal at $70. Speculation of such 2 weeks ago and added another 25% of full stake (now 75%) 6/27 at $62.59
Monday, July 7, 2008
Equity Positions
- Broadcom (BRCM ) watch for break above 29.72, average volume is about 13 mm. Upgraded today by Piper Jaffray.
- BJ Services stopped out today.
- CHK (64.34), watch 61, sell half of position if it breaks.
- UST (53.76), support here at the 40 & 200 dma
- GLW (22.22), support at 22.
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Multifarious Morsels II
BJS (30.79): BJ Services, probably stepped in too early, neg 7% since purchase.
RAI (47.32): Can't buy until July 14 (Wash Sale)
ROST (35.89): Ross Stores, among one of the many retailers sold 1/17/08. Broke through $30 on huge volume and followed through on 4/10/08. Should have been a buyer then around 31.50
AN (8.98): AutoNation has been hammered from a month ago when Lampert had attained a 40% position. The volume has been heavy since 6/19 and the high 12s. Lampert unwinding? AN CEO addresses some industry challenges. The stock is the lowest since September 2001.
CLR (66.44) and FRO (63.83): stocks to watch.
Continental Resources, can't stomach the rich valuations.
Frontline Ltd., private placement of 3 million shares, raising $210 million, or $70 per common share. What other dilutive effects will the placement have? Will brokers rally the stock back/past $70 again? Look for the volume. I like the business and there's a history of extraordinary dividends.
RAI (47.32): Can't buy until July 14 (Wash Sale)
ROST (35.89): Ross Stores, among one of the many retailers sold 1/17/08. Broke through $30 on huge volume and followed through on 4/10/08. Should have been a buyer then around 31.50
AN (8.98): AutoNation has been hammered from a month ago when Lampert had attained a 40% position. The volume has been heavy since 6/19 and the high 12s. Lampert unwinding? AN CEO addresses some industry challenges. The stock is the lowest since September 2001.
CLR (66.44) and FRO (63.83): stocks to watch.
Continental Resources, can't stomach the rich valuations.
Frontline Ltd., private placement of 3 million shares, raising $210 million, or $70 per common share. What other dilutive effects will the placement have? Will brokers rally the stock back/past $70 again? Look for the volume. I like the business and there's a history of extraordinary dividends.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
BJS and CHK
Entering into BJ Services trade (BJS 33.14), 25% of full stake.
Chesapeake is on fire today. Gapped open at 73.10 from the close of 67.36.
Chesapeake in Haynesville Shale joint venture with Plains Exploration
Current position in CHK is 50% of full stake, up 83%. Purchased 11/2/07 at $39.80. Must wait for pullback and subsequent follow through before adding more.
Chesapeake is on fire today. Gapped open at 73.10 from the close of 67.36.
Chesapeake in Haynesville Shale joint venture with Plains Exploration
Current position in CHK is 50% of full stake, up 83%. Purchased 11/2/07 at $39.80. Must wait for pullback and subsequent follow through before adding more.
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