I can't justify doing anything right now. 9% Long, no new positions and hedged to the penny. If I were to guess, I'd guess South.
S&P 500: 799
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Support and Resistance, Oh My!
What is it? Resistance, support, support, resistance. Let's just call 800ish a pivotal level.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Wagoner Ousted
GM's Rick Wagoner was pushed out by the Obama administration in order to make way for a government led overhaul of the American automobile industry. The threat of bankruptcy for GM or Chrysler has the U.S. equity markets on edge and we're likely to see a lower open.
Keep longs and hedges in place and watch the floor of ~800 on the S&P. The Fib. from the January 943 top would suggest support levels of 805 and 772 and resistance of 838.
S&P 500 Closed Friday at 815.94
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Bear Market Rally or New Bull Market?
Stocks Soar on Geithner Plan, BusinessWeek, March 23, 2009
If Rally is Real, Here's Where Investors Will Turn; Jeff Cox, CNBC.com, March 24, 2009
We'll obviously have trouble with 820. Thereafter I would look at 845 and 877. The 800 area is now support.
S&P 500: 815
Monday, March 23, 2009
Markets Up Nicely on Government Details
RSWs will need to be closed at a loss if the S&P moves convincingly above 800.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Pivotal Resistance for Indexes
A series of speed bumps coming up for the DOW as it should start to have a little trouble right here with 7450-7500, then with a declining 50 dma, currently around 7730.
The S&P will fight with 800.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Consumer Inflation Up 0.4% in February
Consumer prices rose in February by the largest amount in seven months. Clothing costs jumped the most in nearly two decades and two-thirds of last month's increase reflected a big jump in gasoline prices.
It appears as though the index wasn't as "muted" as it had been speculated: Consumer Prices up 0.3%, 2/20/09
Bear Market Rallies
Bear market rallies are explosive and convincing by their very nature. They have a propensity to suck in some speculative capital and perhaps even make the common investor believe that everything is ok, that it's safe to go back into the water.
You're fooling yourself if you think that the train has left the station without you and that a call for action is urgently required.
Bear Market Rally Could End as Quickly as it Started; Blogging Stocks, March 11, 2009
Read some interesting bullet points from both sides: Bear Market Rally or New Bull Market?
S&P 500: 778
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
No Buying
Do not buy into this rally with any long-term view. There may be a tradeable bounce but you can't bottom-fish here and think that you've timed the bottom. Even if we trade back to 8000 this market will retest 6470.
S&P 500: 720
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Bear Market Rally Begins?
The markets are up nicely on Citi news. The CEO, Pandit, said that the bank produced an operating profit of $8.3 bb before taxes and special items through February, thus far the stongest performance since July-September of 2007.
S&P 500: 719
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
AZO +$15 (11%) Today
Autozone is in the fast lane amid the car-repair boom.
The Carbon Way thought that AZO was a reasonable hedge against a slow auto market.
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