Recession is Over?

September 15, 2009 Bernanke declared recession over. Technically speaking it is.

Cautious on stocks or a double dip recession:

Nouriel Roubini has staked his claim repeatedly.

Here are some others that state their case on CNBC

Doug Kass is bearish on stocks via Seeking Alpha & Edward Harrison.

Dr. Faber is worried on the long term.

Buffet, however, is "very much against" another significant downturn for the overall economy in the near term.

Be Very Cautious

Caution signs are flashing. Fundamentally, Doug Kass has chronicled his commonition while tweets are surfacing with technical warnings such as those mentioned by @marketfolly finding the S&P's down-trending MACD and its short interest, the lowest level since February 2007, reason for concern.

Historically, investors have been the most leery of September and October. The S&P 500 has registered a -.85% return on 34 down years and 25 up years between 1950 and 2008 in the month of September.

The S&P 500 is currently up 57% from its March 2009 low. Is a pullback impossible to predict? Is it a crapshoot? Perhaps. But when glancing at October '92, October '97, September '98, October '99, October 2000, September 2001, October 2002, October 2004 and October 2005 I like my chances.

Caution is King.

DIS

Disney with a break above 27.30

Look at their acquisition of Marvel

Earnings on November 12