Caution signs are flashing. Fundamentally, Doug Kass has chronicled his commonition while tweets are surfacing with technical warnings such as those mentioned by @marketfolly finding the S&P's down-trending MACD and its short interest, the lowest level since February 2007, reason for concern.
Historically, investors have been the most leery of September and October. The S&P 500 has registered a -.85% return on 34 down years and 25 up years between 1950 and 2008 in the month of September.
The S&P 500 is currently up 57% from its March 2009 low. Is a pullback impossible to predict? Is it a crapshoot? Perhaps. But when glancing at October '92, October '97, September '98, October '99, October 2000, September 2001, October 2002, October 2004 and October 2005 I like my chances.
Caution is King.
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