Market Rally

The US markets are rallying on November housing starts as they smashed expectations jumping 9.3% to 685k.

S&P 1231 +26 (2.15%)

S&P 3 Year Chart

Out of X $25.83

9% loss. No questions, no looking back.

S&P Action

S&P is having trouble with the 200 dma and look at the action at around 1245. Which way are we gonna' go? Don't forget about the summit.

US Steel (X - $28.88)

Double Top Breakout. Into spec stake.
I'd look at some STLD with a break above $13.90

S&P 1220

With the exception of some DE I haven't done much buying yet. With the S&P currently at around 1240 I'd like to see the S&P settle back to 1220 before staging a rally.

Shopping List

X: nothing going
F: three year chart no good
JCP: w/ a break above 34.50, maybe
BRCM: looking very bearish but against every disciplined, technical fiber in my body I may consider bottom-fishing at 30.
EMC: w/ a break above 25, maybe
QCOR: breaking above 44.50 on average volume
DE: double top breakout. In w/ a spec stake today, $79.12.
CSCO: w/ a break above 19 I'm in.
RSU: into 1/2 stake in the 38s

S&P Move Above 1220

This move above 1220 looks significant enough to get bullish for the near term. I have a laundry list and will go through each of the charts and stories over the next 48 hours. It's time to snack on some positions.

Market Looking to Rally Big

In a surprise move China's central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio for its commercial lenders for the first time in nearly three years. "It's a surprising move - the market was not expecting the central bank to (cut RRR) so fast," said Shi Chenyu, an economist with the investment banking unit of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China.

Also, the World's major central banks made it easier for banks to get dollars if they need them, a coordinated move to ease the strains on the global financial system. The ECB said in a statement the central banks were making it cheaper for banks to get U.S. dollar liquidity when they need it, starting next Monday.

My intention was to get out of RSW if the S&P broke back above 1205. Sadly it will gap up and give me a poor shot of getting out good. Glad I took some off the table a week ago.

Corning (GLW $13.09)

GLW is down over 10% today one day after I'd mentioned getting some. They've cut their fourth-quarter sales forecast for its Gorilla Glass. This type of action is precisely why it's pivotal to buy breakouts on strength. I was willing to miss 5% of upside to buy over 15.50 in order to avoid a 10% pitfall today. I'll reset my expectations now. I'm not sure that I'll buy any down here in the 13s but for now I'm just glad to have avoided a big loss.

Corning (GLW $14.92)

Good 'ole Corning, NY. We go through this great little town every time we drive to upstate New York. Great countryside, great museum and great products. Looking to get into some GLW with a break above $15.50.

What's Next?

Markets are rallying today on strong, preliminary Black Friday results.
There is also December 9th to keep in mind when a European Union summit will take place to tackle the euro zone debt crisis.
El-Erian's "3 Things to Watch".

Fed's Black Sky Scenario

Found this interesting in Business Insider.
Fed's Black Sky Scenario is revealed as having some ugly numbers. An unemployment rate of over 13% and a DOW of 5600 for starts. Thirty one banks must complete a stress test against this scenario and the list is right here.

RSW

Selling some RSW at a profit before the long, feel-good weekend. I'm hanging on to the rest unless 1205 gets taken out.

S&P & the 1225

If the S&P breaks down below 1225 and I'm in for another bite of bear:

S&P @ 1260

I just feel that this thing is gonna' roll over and I'm willing to roll the dice. Despite what Buffet says there is too much uncertainty out there and it smells.

More FAZ & RSW

Yes, retail numbers were pretty good & inflation seems tame but my gut doesn't like the chart on the S&P, here, at 1250 and I still don't like financials.

Italian German Spread

The Monti honeymoon is over. Italy 10 - Germany 10 Spread is up over 6% today and above 5 again. PPI numbers were OK today so I'm waffling on staying short or going shorter; a terrible position to be in.

Chart: Spread between German and Italian 10 Year Bonds

I'm still negatively biased so I'm thankful for Joe Corzine, MF Global and this chart thanks to Joe Weisenthanl @TheStalwart.

Steve Jobs

Stanford Commencement Speech

Transcript of my reminiscence of working for Steve Jobs by Guy Kawasaki

Steve's Own Words from his last Earning's Call

Steve's Influence on Hubspot

Rainbow over Pixar October 5, 2011

Flowers for Steve Jobs

The Steve Jobs I Knew by Walter Mossberg

Welcome IBM. Seriously.

Steve Jobs: Timeline of the Entrepreneur

The Crazy Ones - Never Before Aired 1997

Guy Kawasaki talks about Steve Job death October 5, 2011

Steve Jobs Documentary aired in 2010

Steve Job's impact on the Automobile

Why Steve Jobs Matters - Inc. Magazine

Do the Opposite

Posted this 10/4 @ 3:26 PM. The markets took off like a shot at 3:27 PM. Still holding FAZ & RSW so look for another surge today. Haha. Interesting to note that FAZ is currently up in a positive market.

DOW 10,846 +37
S&P 1,130 +6
NAZ 2,433 +28

Holding RSW & FAZ

Bernanke. Greece. Wall Street protests.

DOW 10,490 -165

S&P 1,089 -10

NAZ 2,325 -11

Looking for the Door

So...holding RSW & FAZ has turned out OK thus far BUT far too long. Looking to turn a profit in these two but where? I know that breaking 1,100 is the lowest since August 2010 and that the P&F target could be the June 2010 low of 1010. Hold on.

DOW 10,703 -209

S&P 1,104 -25

NAZ 2,348 -66

Watching 1210

Sadly still holding RSW & FAZ. I'll keep holding unless 1210 is taken out.

DOW 11,295
S&P 1,188
NAZ 2,565

Gold

Marc Faber says that support @ $1,500 doesn't hold we could see $1,100. I don't know if 1,100 is real or not nor do I care since I don't hold gold but I do know that people get caught up in fear and greed and like oil before it gold must've suckered a lot of individual investors. If you hold gold, look for an exit point.

Holding RSW & FAZ

Any close below 1119 on the S&P will be the lowest close since September of last year. Point & Figure charts suggest 1010 as the objective. I'm not so sure but I'm hanging onto RSW & FAZ for now.

FAZ & RSW

I was beginning to really question hanging onto FAZ & RSW but so long as the S&P stayed below 1230 I felt relatively comfortable. Both are starting to pay now and I'm going to hold until we see what happens to financials. The markets are gonna' get their ass handed to them at the open but will this be capitulation and a sign of better things to come?

9/21 closes:
DOW: 11,124.84 futures indicating -300
S&P: 1,166.76 futures indicating -35
NAZ: 2,258.30 futures indicating -59

Gold is down over 3.5% @ 1,741. Hope you didn't get suckered.
Has the dollar bottomed? It's showing a lot of strength over the last couple of months and sits at ~78.

Gold Spiking Again

At $1,850 gold is up another 2.5% this morning. This looks like the speculation in oil we'd seen in 2008. Don't get suckered.

Markets are gonna' start off rough again today so I'll try to unload the RSWs at better than 44 since they didn't go yesterday. Hanging on to FAZ though. US banks don't look any better and FAZ may turn out to be a score.

Markets Getting Crushed

Geez, I'm not doing too bad today:

DOW 10,960 -450

S&P 1,145 -49

NAZ 2,398 -113

Reuters: US stocks tumbled after data showed factory activity in the US Mid-Atlantic region unexpectedly fell to the lowest level since March 2009.

There also concerns that the European debt crisis might spread to the US banking sector. This is why I'm in FAZ. Gonna' try to unload RSW @ $43.45

Producer Prices Surge in July

U.S. core producer prices rose at their fastest pace in six months in July, pushed up by higher tobacco and light truck costs...

Tobacco and light truck costs? I doubt that there is enough here to worry about inflation.

DOW 11,405.93

S&P 1,192.76

NAZ 2,523.45

Markets Rolling Over?

Holding FAZ and adding a little RSW @ $40

Markets Up Today

• DOW 10,979 +259
• S&P 1,151 +30
• NAZ 2,451 +70

I'm looking for the markets to weaken through the afternoon. Probably worth grabbing a little more FAZ @ $65.

3:50 PM UPDATE: oops. DOW +441, S&P +61, NAZ +127

CSCO $15.25 +$1.52

Thinking of a little Cisco this morning but there's really no rush. Stock will pop up about 11% on good results but there's no reason to buy until the stock breaks through $16.50.

RSU

Out of RSU @ $33.38

Watching Financials...again...again.

US financial crisis looming again? You know these positions have not done anything in a year and a half?! In fact they're down for the most part. Snacking on another position in FAZ right here @ $70.

WFR $5.93

Watching MEMC Electronic Materials. I don't ordinarily look for bottom-feeders but this stock has been on the radar for 2 years while it's slid about 65%. Revenues are up Y/Y but margins and cash flow have come under pressure. Decent cash value (~$600 MM) but can it support the neg. cash flows the company has been runnin'? Watching closely.

Market Turmoil

S&P support @ 1140, then 1120.

3 PM UPDATE: gonna snatch a little RSU at $33