GoPro (GPRO $4.00) BUY: Up 3.6% at the open on 3 MM shares

Into a spec stake at $4.00. Average daily volume is 5.6 MM shares and we're at 3 MM in 20 minutes today. Go back to all of our commentary over the last two years and find out why we think it's a takeover candidate.

SONOS (SONO $13.85) Closes at Support

Sonos closed dead nuts on the 13.85 that I'd mentioned. We'll see what happens next week.

GoPro (GPRO $4.00)

Just looking for any signs of life. I'm a believer long-term but still no position. I think that you can dollar-cost average into it for months and make out but I'm looking for a spec. buy trigger. Maybe it will be the post-Christmas action? Take a look at the level last December, '18.

SharpSpring (SHSP $12.95) Wild Ride this Fall

It's been a minute since I've mentioned the SharpSpring position, which we're fully invested in. As you can see, it's been nutty but we're still holding. I have faith that it either goes back to $20+ or acquired or both.
Here's a Seeking Alpha piece from July

SONOS (SONO $13.73) DOWN AGAIN!

Sonos just falling like a stone.
Honestly, I knew that I should have strangled Sonos but I felt the momo on the plus side after forming a nice cup and handle.

A strangle is when you buy both the call and put options with the same expiration date but different strikes. You can make money in either direction as long as the underlying stock is volatile and moves quickly, aka Sonos this week. Of course, one of the options will lose money but you're hoping that the other's gains would more than offset the losses.

Sonos (SONO $14.17) Calls Sucking Wind

Sonos sets a 52 week high Friday, the day we purchase calls. Sonos sets another new high Monday, the 25th. Good volume, good potential for a breakout. Sonos on Cramer's Lightning Round Monday night. Down two days in a row. Thanks Cramer.
Support at $13.85ish, holding these trashy calls for now.

Elizabeth Warren Wins Presidency. What Does it Mean?

Clearly, there is a lot that needs to happen before an Elizabeth Warren presidency but we're already witnessing speculation on the effect it may have on the U.S. financial markets, specifically asset prices and the dollar. In sum, hedge funds are positioning to short the dollar perhaps with put options that are "particularly attractive" given the low level of implied volatility in foreign-exchange rates.

Read More

Remember the Inverted Yield Curve "Crisis"?!

Well, the yield curve is on the road to normalcy and big money has been putting on trades. What does this all mean? Recession fears are subsiding (they were unjustified to begin with) and an eminent trade deal with China will be good for a rally. Of course, a trade deal was never in doubt, either, thus may already be priced into these record setting stock market levels. Hard to say but I believe 2020 will be good for stocks, particularly small caps.

SONOS (SONO $15.45 +8.8%)

Sonos hitting 52 week high on nice volume. Into some SONO $17.50 Calls 12/20 exp @ $19.00 per contract ($.19)

Market Volatility thus VIX and IV

Despite all of the perceived government chaos between impeachment proceedings, democratic party debates, the China "trade war" and general jackassery, we seem to be in a low volatility environment. Need a refresher on all strategies that would take advantage of rising volatility. Of course, you could just buy the TVIX but I'm looking for much more aggressive returns (as if TVIX wasn't already).

OUT of FIT at 5.70

It started dropping like a stone so locked in profits on spec stake.
There is likely news that an offer has been made, lower than the 6ish market price that traded today.
Officially + 57% so I left a little on the table today. Certainly great for a 27 day holding period though.
No longer a position.

Fitbit (FIT $6.20) brick wall at $7

Fit will have real problems with 7 so I'll be looking to book profits soon. +71% in less than a month's time is too much to pass up. No action yet but may pull the chocks soon.

Fitbit (FIT 5.46) +50% since purchase

I'd suspected that a purchase would eventually happen. I noted Facebook and Twitter but failed to mention Google and it sounds like they may be interested:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/28/google-parent-alphabet-is-in-talks-to-buy-smartwatch-maker-fitbit-reuters-reports.html

FIT $3.63

Into spec stake (25% of full position) of FIT at $3.63.
Watching GoPro, closely, on this dip after guiding their revenue and EPS downward.
Details to come.

FIT ($3.91 - 4.5%)

Now that FIT has filled the gap, I'm prepared to enter with a speculative position at the $3.60 level.

Watch List Update

Gee Group (JOB .7172) The stock has languished at about .50 since the beginning of August and, quite frankly, has looked like they're going away. But then Friday, 9/20, the stock was up 19% on triple average volume. It looks like a dog but watching regardless. Still no position.

GoPro (GPRO 4.66) Hit a 52 week low during the week of September 3rd and had rebounded to 4.70ish within a week. It's been around 4.70 since September 10 with a couple of volume spikes but still nothing to get excited about. Still, no position just yet.

Snap (SNAP 17.04) No changes, no position. Not even sure if I'm interested in following anymore.

Fit (FIT 4.10) FIT set a 52 week low of 2.81 in August. There is an argument that they're losing the wearables war and must search for other sources of revenue, vis a vis their "health subscription" option. No doubt there is value in this company, primarily their cash balance and decent balance sheet, let alone their immense amount of data. In fact, rumors circulated Friday, 9/20, that they may be exploring a potential sale and caused the stock to pop 12% and traded as high as 4.52. No changes, no position but stay tuned.

Garmin (GRMN 85.03) No changes, no position, and clearly the stock we should've bought when we highlighted wearables.

Sonos (SONO 14.91) up nicely since last watch list update. No position. 

Data I/O (DAIO 4.00) No position.

Pro-Dex Inc. (PDEX 15.61) up nicely since last watch list update. No position.

S&P 2,992
DOW 26,935
NAZ 8,117

GoPro Misses (GPRO $4.35 -14%)

GoPro missed their earnings but provided a rosy outlook for revenue growth and prompted an after-hours rally on August 1.
Apparently short lived, the rally fizzled and the stock got creamed on August 2, -14%.
Motley Fool put together some bullet points on GPRO's quarter here
No position, still watching

Fitbit is Crushed...AGAIN (FIT $3.44 -18%)

FIT released earnings last night with downward guidance in revenue. They still saw growth in devices and their health services. Long term vision seems to be intact but no position (thankfully) yet.

Read More

SharpSpring (SHSP $12.70)

The secondary was priced at $13. The price makes sense since their offering in March was $13.
Add some, here, for the long haul. Fully invested.

SharpSpring (SHSP 14.58) Significant Development

The stock has been sliding from the 19s since the May 9th news of Evercel's (a holding company) decision to convert their note into 1.2 mm shares of stock. Since then, another 800k shares of stock have surfaced from early investors, bringing the total of new, additional stock outstanding to 2mm shares. Sure, this offering is a dilutive event but the underlying SharpSpring story is intact and for that reason we've added more at 15.

Watch List Update

Gee Group (JOB 1.00) The stock just continues to slide even after Management and Directors invested $2MM of their own capital.  I like that commitment but still no position.

GoPro (GPRO 6.30) Had a nice run up to resistance at 7.60, offering that little trade, but no breakout, thus, no opportunity to buy in size for the long haul. Still, no position just yet.

Snap (SNAP 11.89) No changes, no position. Not even sure if I'm interested in following anymore.

Fit (FIT 4.63) FIT was almost $7 at the end of Feb. Despite having some good news and $400MM in cash, they're about to make their fourth visit to the 4.50 area. I typically like healthy looking stock action before a buy but this may be a value play and risk worth taking in the mid-4s. No changes, no position but stay tuned.

Garmin (GRMN 76.48) No changes, no position.

Sonos (SONO 10.15) down from 13.02 since adding to Watch List

Data I/O (DAIO 4.15) No position.

Pro-Dex Inc. (PDEX 11.34) had it's face ripped off. I haven't looked too deeply as to why but the action speaks for itself. It may take another 23 years to recover. LOL. No position.

S&P 2,752
DOW 24,815
NAZ 7,453

Pro-Dex Inc. (PDEX $13.00 -27%) Crushed

Earnings last night, some insider selling but this kind of reaction was not expected.
No changes. No position yet.

GoPro Inc. (GPRO 6.72) setting up

+6% on more than triple its average volume today. Earnings after the bell.
The point and figure says a push through 6.90 will make for a nice trade:

But the weekly chart convinces me to stay put until a break above 7.60:

No changes. No position.

Fitbit (FIT 4.95) -8%

FIT is down 8% on triple its average volume, today, and from 7ish in February despite a solid earnings report: revenue up 10% to $272 million, above guidance, and device growth accelerated, up 36% year-over-year, smartwatches increased 117% and trackers increased 17% yoy. This marks the first quarter of positive year-over-year growth for trackers since Q3, 2016.

Smartwatches comprised 42% of revenue from 30% of revenue a year ago. As part of our strategy of launching more affordable and accessible devices, we continue to grow our community of active users. Revenue from Fitbit Health Solutions also increased 70% to $30.5 million, represented 11% of total revenue.

No position yet

Read More from the earnings call transcript

Pro-Dex Inc. (PDEX $16.23) A 23 year Cup and Handle?

We will see. No position. Watching for an entry point.

Disney (139.22) and Avengers Endgame

Who knew that these Marvel comics would become some of the highest grossing films of all time? Oh, I don't know.

SharpSpring (SHSP 19.91)

Current position still rocking for us. Hit a new 52 week high this week (20.45) on decent volume. Of course, having some brokers behind you doesn't hurt the cause. We're +431% considering yesterday's close and given the offering at 13 and aforementioned broker push, we may see another surge but it must take a breather shortly thereafter. Reiterating the hold.

Watch List Update

Gee Group (JOB 1.17) it just keeps getting worse. No position.
GoPro (GPRO 6.07). No changes, no position yet.
Snap (SNAP 10.91). No changes, no position.
Fit (FIT 5.36) No changes, no position yet.
Garmin (GRMN 85.80) No changes, no position.
Sonos (SONO 10.71) down from 13.02 since adding to Watch List
Data I/O (DAIO 4.87)
Pro-Dex Inc. (PDEX 17.50) hit another 52 week high this week. (Per last update: "Looking for a break above 16 on heavy volume. Incidentally, the stock was at 16 in May of 1996. It's taken 23 years to get back to this level!")
Canopy Growth (CGC 47.05) at a $17 bb market cap, we will never buy this so removing. I am well aware of the exponential growth for this industry but it's priced in here.  

Do you have a 401k?

If you do have a 401k available at your company, I hope you're taking full advantage of it. The obvious benefits are pre-tax contributions and perhaps some employer matching.
The not-so-obvious benefits are dollar cost averaging and the encouragement to invest your money, in turn, forcing you to budget and be disciplined with what remains of your paycheck.
It's absolutely true that establishing your contribution amounts and leaving them be is the status quo and most advisable. However, we like to adjust contributions according to the markets so here's a synopsis of the last year's contributions and the proportions:

2/9/18 – 7/27/18: 100% GOLD contribution

7/27/18 – 10/5/18:  50% GOLD, 25 EuroPacific, 25 Emerging Markets

10/19/18 -  12/31/18: 25% GOLD, 25 Europacific, 25 US Small Cap, 25 US Mid Cap

1/11/19 - present: 35% US Small Cap, 35 US Mid Cap, 30 EuroPacific

Gold Updated Chart

I'd say that it responded pretty well with the 40. Now what? Holding and haven't added any since early 4Q2018.

SharpSpring Volume on 3/7

152,000 shares yesterday and the stock didn't move one way or the other. Someone, somewhere is making something happen. I feel like adding more SHSP ($14.24).

3/26/19 edit: yeah, because they did a 750,000 share offering at 13. It was in the filings and I missed it.

Fitbit, Inc. (FIT $6.05) to take on Apple?!

FIT is introducing new lines and services in attempt to take on Apple Watch.
Remembering that FIT has a ton of data on their consumers, know their "health solutions business" coined, Fitbit Care. This relationship with the consumer not only monetizes that data but creates a very sticky relationship with them. Charts be damned, I'm liking this story more and more.
Still watching, no positions.

This is a fantastic read for all, particularly young investors: "The Greatest Investor You've Never Heard Of". Most young investors can't see, out 30 years, but look what happens when you start early. It's ALL about time...compounding growth. You MUST start investing in your early 20's.

His fortune comes not from some flash of entrepreneurial brilliance but from a lifetime of prudent buy-and-hold investing.

SharpSpring (SHSP 15.17) new 52 Week high, AGAIN

Nice ramp up to a new 52 week high (16.52) last week, followed by a quick brake check to the 50 dma, settling in at 15.17 for the week. The volume was above average but not huge. Clearly, someone is jockeying for position. At the high of 16.52 this week, it stood at a 341% gain from our average cost of 3.75 and a year and a half of holding. I don't know what the exit looks like at the moment but holding for now.

Watch List Update

Previous update was Feb. 2nd

Gee Group (JOB 1.38)
GoPro (GPRO 6.08)
Snap (SNAP 9.80) up from 6.91 since last update
Fit (FIT 6.14)
Garmin (GRMN 84.69) have not included on the watch list but should have been
Sonos (SONO 10.54) down from 13.02 since adding to Watch List
Data I/O (DAIO 6.33)
Pro-Dex Inc. (PDEX 14.41) hit a new 52 week high since Feb 6th. Looking for a break above 16 on heavy volume. Incidentally, the stock was at 16 in May of 1996. It's taken 23 years to get back to this level!
Canopy Growth (CGC 47.05) almost removed this from Watch List

FIT getting crushed

FIT (5.77) is down 17% on heavy volume. Meanwhile, Garmin (GRMN 84.07) is at 52 week highs. No positions.

GLD +14% from August Lows

Gold has had a nice little rally but clearly coming to a pivotal top. Holding for now but anxious to lighten up since we're, like, 1000% too heavy in the position and have been patient for a long time.

PDEX (14.71)

Pro-Dex nano-cap opportunity at $62 mm market cap
No position, still watching but, boy, these charts are looking sweet.

SNAP up 25% today

SNAP at 8.81 +1.77 (25%) on 124 mm shares vs. average of 18 mm shares. No position.

Surprises with solid Q4
Snapchat's Android usage keeps falling but rebuild tests well

SharpSpring (SHSP $15.15) new 52 Week High

current position breaking out on triple its average volume in the first 20 minutes

Apple doesn't do acquisitions

Sure, there has been a couple of them, namely Beats but as a rule, Apple doesn't buy anyone. With nearly $150 Billion in cash, they are really getting pressure to put it to work. Obviously, cash yields one of the worst returns on the planet so...adding SONO ($13.02) to the Watch List.

Apple is “currently lagging competitors in the smart home category,” JPMorgan wrote, referring to the company’s HomePod product line. Sonos, in contrast, has a “differentiated position as a premium home speaker system relative to Amazon Alexa and Google Home,” along with “strong loyalty among current customers and [a] robust international presence.”

Watch List Update

Gee Group (JOB $1.82) It fell to .54 on heavy volume and like my previous watch list post indicated it looked like the death knell for JOB. No significant news surfaced and we've made no buys into the stock.
GoPro (GPRO $5.04) status quo, no changes
Snap (SNAP $6.91) no changes
Fitbit (FIT $6.20) no changes
Data I/O (DAIO $5.85) no changes
Canopy Growth (CGC $48.88) such a rich valuation. Probably shouldn't even be "watching"
Pro-Dex, Inc. (PDEX $14.89) no changes

S&P: 2706.53
DOW: 25,063.89
NAZ: 7263.87