Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Virgin Galactic (SPCE $34) +422% since Nov 25

Here is another FOMO stock that has gone intergalactic in the last three months, Virgin Galactic.
SPCE hit $6.90 November 25th, 2019. Since then, it had risen as high as $42.49, a 516% gain in 3 months and trades at 34 today. Do you think that it's a little overzealous right now?
Like Tesla, SPCE has an emphatic fan base. Going into earnings due out after the market close today, it could vault upwards again despite having almost no fundamentals. Whether it springs upwards or not, I believe that the earnings call will create a huge swing in the stock, one way or the other.
For this reason, I think that Virgin Galactic offers up another great opportunity to put a strangle on today. Going for the short-biased 3/13 40C, 4/17 20P.


2/26 UPDATE: Following last night's "earnings" call:

  • Chairman Chamath Palihapitiya doesn't think SPCE is a bubble
  • $6 Billion market cap
  • Quarterly sales of only $529,000 falling short of estimates of $1.78 million
  • Cash and equivalents of $480 million
  • Loss of $73 million for the quarter
  • CAPEX of $6 million for the quarter
  • Plans to resume sales of $250,000 tickets to the edge of the atmosphere
  • Announced One Small Step program designed to collect $1000 deposits
  • "Expressions of interest" have increased to 8000 people

Monday, February 24, 2020

Mind-Pop

Our kids (now 14, 21, & 23) have been hearing me provide this "career" advice throughout their childhood: 1) you must sell something, principally speaking, yourself 2) you must feel comfortable in front of an audience (public speaking).

Here is a meme I saw that prompted this post:
"What we should have learned in school"

  1. Public Speaking
  2. Customer Service
  3. People Engagement
  4. Conflict Resolution
  5. Critical Thinking
  6. Accounting
  7. Financial Planning
  8. Software Development
  9. Creativity

Sunday, February 23, 2020

Tesla (TSLA $901) UP 60% since January 28 Post

Tesla has been on one heck of a ride since this post.
The parabolic rise was kicked off with a great earnings report at the end of January. The report was followed by frenzied media coverage, fanatic retail investor buying, some justifying analyst commentary, more media, more interviews, a little short covering and a $2 billion stock offering. The stock sits at $901 and it's valuation is unmistakably rich but the potential for the next 10 years is high as well. I certainly don't advocate buying it here but there has been great money made over the last 26 days.

What is a Zero-Based Budget?

Simply put, monthly income - monthly expenses = $0. If you have excess remaining after expenses, save it. If your expenses outpace your income, you need to refine your budget. So easily said, right?!
Well, truth be told, most American families don't have a defined, written budget and for this reason, they live paycheck-to-paycheck. Even if they do have a budget, unfortunately, most folks lack the discipline to stick to it.
What are the ranges of acceptable spending in a responsible budget? According to Dave Ramsey, they look like this:

  • Health 5-10%
  • Recreation/Entertainment 5-10%
  • Utilities 5-10%
  • Food 10-15%
  • Charity 10-15%
  • Savings 10-15%
  • Personal 10-15%
  • Transportation 10-15%
  • Insurance 10-25% - MASSIVE RANGE HERE, due to one's various driving & health conditions
  • Housing 25-35% - 35 is TOO HIGH in my opinion but tell that to peeps in SF or NYC

A Few of Today's Trending Topics on Twitter

Flat Earth conspiracist, Mike Hughes, dies in a homemade rocket
Coronavirus and Covad-19 making people very nervous
Clint Eastwood endorses Bloomberg
Chris Matthews declares Bernie Sander's wins as shocking as France falling to Germany in WWII.
Trump fires Joseph McGuire and General William McRaven is sad about it
Firefighters attacked by 40,000 bees

Coronavirus May be 'Disease X' Health Experts Warned About

78,000 confirmed cases worldwide
2,300 confirmed deaths

The World Health Organization cautioned years ago that a mysterious “disease X” could spark an international contagion. The new coronavirus, with its ability to quickly morph from mild to deadly, is emerging as a contender. Bill Gates had also been pounding the table about this type of pandemic for years. See previous post

In less than three months, it’s infected almost 78,000 people, mostly in China, and killed more than 2,300. Emerging hot spots in South Korea, Iran and Italy have stoked further alarm. Read more in this Bloomberg piece

130 cases reported in Italy. They're closing schools in Milan and cancelling sporting events Read More 

Exiled Chinese billionaire "whistleblower" claims that millions have been affected and 50,000+ have died from Coronavirus. Fake news? I don't know. Read it

Link to the the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)  



Monday, February 3, 2020

Coronavirus

17,000 confirmed cases worldwide
360 confirmed deaths

U.S. imposing travel bans, hurting airline stocks
Chinese economy will see a slowdown. What impact on U.S. stocks? Indexes slid on Friday 1/31 largely on Coronavirus related concerns, be it fear of pandemic or significant economic impacts.

see previous post