Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Tesla is a Fraud! ($785)

Or is it?
The future of EV for the next 20 years, even 10 years, looks promising ONLY with Tesla in the space. No Tesla and there is no EV in the foreseeable future. Despite their ambitious goals and announcements, all traditional auto manufacturers are still flailing away and in most cases have scrapped their plans of their EV initiatives.

Despite car sales hitting the skids over the last month, the oil market rocked, resulting in U.S. gas prices below $2 /gallon and a global pandemic it seems as though Tesla has maintained some semblance of production. Tesla wants to deliver 500,000 vehicles in 2020. It sounds like the new Street bogey is ~400,000 deliveries.

Cash burn is the other critical component of today's call. I think that analyst are expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of $900MM burn in Q1.

Most critics looked sidelong at Tesla's new Model Y, stating that it was just a tweaked 3 and this was Tesla's attempt at introducing a new model to their lineup to keep the stock pump going. It's true that the similarities are present, after all, the cost of the Y is similar to the 3 because it's manufactured with 75% of similar parts. The intent for economies of scale and higher margins are obvious and the Y carries a price tag higher than the 3. Here's a short Forbes piece and quick search to compare the differences between the two models.

Production of the Model Y was originally slated for the end of 2020, which was then adjusted to the Summer of 2020.  Apparently, they're way ahead of schedule and have been delivering Ys now.

Fraud? I don't know but I think that the wind has been behind them...for now.

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