Interesting to note that 425 is pivotal on both timeframes. 425 is a 25% pullback from all time highs, in my view, not out of the realm of possibilities. Plan is to ladder back into equities at 475, 450 and 425 (incidentally 425 coinciding with the 200 DMA). Even after scaling back in, we will continue to hold 1/3 of net worth in low duration bonds and cash equivalents in the event that we get a 2008-2009 style crisis. What does THAT look like? A 50%+ decline! That level would be 281 and the summer of 2019... only 5 YEARS AGO. That would be extreme but it's not insane enough to plan accordingly.
Also, a little price history perspective. Pre-COVID exuberant high was 339, COVID low was 218, if you split the difference between those two, you arrive at 280.
The stock market has a memory.
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